The New York Primary Results

By | 4/19/2016 Leave a Comment
New York Primary Results

Today is the Empire State’s day in the spotlight and its role in the presidential primary season has perhaps never been more critical. Here's how the final results are likely to impact the leading candidates:

Donald Trump:

Mr. Trump is seeking to regain his footing after a period of missteps, bad press and political outmaneuvering at the hands of the Cruz campaign, and certainly looks poised to do so if all of the polling of the last several weeks holds true. The critical aspect to his campaign’s performance tonight is whether he can hit above 50% in both the overall statewide voting as well as in the vast majority of the state’s congressional districts. 

For the Republicans, only 14 of the 95 delegates up for grabs tonight are awarded for the statewide vote, with the other 81 being fought over district by district (3 delegates apiece), turning this into a virtual street battle for the three remaining candidates. Trump is certain to win a good many of them, but he needs to win a vast majority of them to bolster his lead and continue the narrative of him being the “presumptive” nominee in all but name.

Bernie Sanders:

The Senator from Vermont goes into today’s voting with most recent polls showing him anywhere between 10 and 17 percentage points behind his establishment rival. 

While it’s true we’ve been here before and seen his campaign defy polls and pundits to pull off wins or virtual ties in stunning fashion (Michigan), we’ve also been here before where the come-from-behind phenomenon has fallen flat (Ohio). 

With New York being closed to independent voters – a key constituency that has served him well in prior races – high turnout will be key to Sanders’ performance this evening. With the level of enthusiasm he’s been able to generate in recent rallies (28,000 showed up at his Prospect Park event this past Sunday), combined with crucial get-out-the-vote support from the powerful and well-organized Working Families Party, he may well achieve that.

Hillary Clinton:

If the stakes are high for Sanders in New York, they’re equally high for Hillary Clinton, the state’s former Senator and current resident. A narrow win here simply isn’t going to be enough. Anything short of a convincing margin of victory isn’t going to quell the nervousness that many in the party currently have about the long-term durability of her candidacy, so she’ll need to pull of a double-digit lead if she wants to hold her head up high on Wednesday morning.

With all of the advantages she has in the state that would seem completely within her grasp, and if her strength among minority voters holds here she may walk away with it, despite her enthusiasm deficit. If she doesn’t, her bravado from yesterday when she said, “I am hoping to do really well tomorrow. I am hoping to wrap up the Democratic nomination,” will be ringing very hollow.

The upshot:

This is Trump’s rebound time. Even if he doesn’t win all of the delegates, he’ll still have dominated the results and be able to use them to turn a page on his recent stumbles.  

While a win might be a bridge too far, even a strong second-place showing for Sanders will be seen as a victory of sorts, and while it might not help much with his delegate math it will keep his momentum and credibility in fine fettle. Clinton just has to hope that doesn’t happen. If it does, she'll be back on shaky ground.

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